The Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London has been the world leader in mathematical modelling of the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases of humans and animals for 20 years. It hosts the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the NIHR HPRU in Modelling and Health Economics, the Jameel Institute, and the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, among other initiatives. This multi-disciplinary department publishes frequently in Nature, Science, Lancet, PNAS, AIDS and other leading journals. It has developed models of avian influenza, SARS, HIV, TB, foot-and-mouth-disease, vector-borne diseases including malaria and dengue, helminth infections, childhood vaccine-preventable infections, sexually-transmitted infections, drug-resistant bacterial infections and others.
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Selected publications authored by members of the Department
- Hallett TB, Mangal TD, Tamuri AU, et al, 2025,
Estimates of resource use in the public-sector health-care system and the effect of strengthening health-care services in Malawi during 2015–19: a modelling study (Thanzi La Onse).
The Lancet Global Health, 13:e28-e37
- Nash R, Bhatia S, Morgenstern C, et al, 2024,
Ebola virus disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review.
Lancet Infectious Diseases, 24:e762-e773
- Churcher TS, Stopard IJ, Hamlet, A, et al, 2024,
The epidemiological benefit of pyrethroid–pyrrole insecticide treated nets against malaria: an individual-based malaria transmission dynamics modelling study.
The Lancet Global Health, 12:e1973-e1983
- Barnsley G, Olivera Mesa D, Hogan, A, et al, 2024,
Impact of the 100 days mission for vaccines on COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.
The Lancet Global Health, 12:e1764-e1774
- Perez Guzman PN, Knock ES, Imai N, 2023,
Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England.
Nature Communications, 14:1-9
- Watson O, Barnsley G, Toor J, 2022,
Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study.
Lancet Infectious Diseases, 22:1293-1302
- Olivera Mesa D, Hogan A, Watson O, et al, 2022,
Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic.
Communications Medicine, 2
- Sonabend R, Whittles LK, Imai N, et al, 2021,
Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study.
The Lancet, 398:1825-1835
- Volz E, Mishra S, Chand M, et al, 2021,
Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1.7 in England.
Nature, 593:266-269
- Faria N, Mellan TA, Whittaker C, et al, 2021,
Genomics and epidemiology of the P. 1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil.
Science, 372:815-821
- Monod M, Blenkinsop A, Xi X, et al. 2021.
Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.
Science. 371
- Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunubá Z, et al. 2021.
Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.
The Lancet. 397: 398-408
- Hogan AB, Jewell BK, Sherrard-Smith E, et al. 2020.
Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.
The lancet Global Health. 8(9):e1132-21141
- Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, Unwin HJT, et al. 2020.
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.
Nature. 584 (257-261)
- Lavezzo E, Franchin E, Ciavarella C, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, et al. 2020.
Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo'.
Nature, 584: 435-429
- Walker PGT, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, et al. 2020.
The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low-and middle-income countries.
Science. 369:413-422
- Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. 2020.
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.
The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 20(6):668-677
- Ebola Outbreak Epidemiology Team, 2018,
Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo, April-May 2018: an epidemiological study.
Lancet, 392:213-221
- Pons-Salort M, Grassly NC, 2018,
Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses.
Science, 361:800-803
- Routledge I, Chevez JER, Cucunuba ZM, Rodriguez MG, Guinovart C, Gustafson KB, Schneider K, Walker PGT, Ghani AC, Bhatt S, 2018,
Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting.
Nature Communications 9:2476
- Blake IM, Pons-Salort M, Molodecky NA, Diop OM, Chenoweth P, Bandyopadhyay AS, Zaffran M, Sutter RW, Grassly NC, 2018,
Type 2 Poliovirus Detection after Global Withdrawal of Trivalent Oral Vaccine.
New England Journal of Medicine, 379:834-845.
- Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, et al., 2016,
Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol:113, ISSN:0027-8424, Pages:9081-9086
- Ferguson NM, Cucunuba ZM, Dorigatti I, et al., 2016,
Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America.
Science, Vol:353, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:353-354
- Ferguson, N. M., Rodríguez-Barraquer, I., Dorigatti, I., Mier-Y-Teran-Romero, L., Laydon, D. J., & Cummings, D. A. T. (2016).
Benefits and risks of the sanofi-pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment.
Science, 353(6303), 1033-1036
- Ratmann O, van Sighem A, Bezemer D, Gavryushkina A, Jurriaans S, Wensing A, et al:
Sources of HIV infection among men having sex with men and implications for prevention.
Sci Transl Med 2016, 8:320ra322.
- Walker PGT, Griffin JT, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC:
Estimating the most efficient allocation of interventions to achieve reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden and transmission in Africa: a modelling study.
The Lancet Global Health 2016, 4:e474-e484.
- Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Reyburn H, Drakeley CJ, Riley EM, Ghani AC:
Gradual acquisition of immunity to severe malaria with increasing exposure.
Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015, 282.
- WHO Ebola Response Team, Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, et al., 2015,
West African Ebola epidemic after one year--slowing but not yet under control.
N Engl J Med, Vol:372, Pages:584-587
- Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, et al., 2015,
Ebola Virus Disease among Children in West Africa.
New England Journal of Medicine, Vol:372, ISSN:0028-4793, Pages:1274-1277
- Eaton JW, Bacaer N, Bershteyn A, Cambiano V, Cori A, Dorrington RE, et al:
Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era.
Lancet Glob Health 2015, 3:e598-608.
- Phillips A, Shroufi A, Vojnov L, Cohn J, Roberts T, Ellman T, et al:
Sustainable HIV treatment in Africa through viral-load-informed differentiated care. Nature 2015, 528:S68-76.
- Aylward B, Barboza P, Bawo L, et al., 2014,
Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa - The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections.
New England Journal of Medicine, Vol:371, ISSN:0028-4793, Pages:1481-1495
- Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Van Kerkhove MD, et al., 2014,
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility.
Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:14, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:50-56
- Anderson SJ, Cherutich P, Kilonzo N, Cremin I, Fecht D, Kimanga D, et al:
Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention through prioritisation of the people and places in greatest need: a modelling study.
Lancet 2014, 384:249-256.
- Churcher TS, Cohen JM, Novotny J, Ntshalintshali N, Kunene S, Cauchemez S:
Measuring the path toward malaria elimination.
Science 2014, 344:1230-1232.
